Harvest Prections 2024
David Griffiths
Senior Agronomy Manager, West
It has certainly been a challenging year for black-grass control in the west, but where residual herbicides were applied in the autumn, these have worked well. However, some crop damage was seen where we had heavy rainfall immediately after herbicides were applied or where seedbed quality was poor.
Unfortunately, later autumn applications and spring follow-up treatments were either missed entirely or delayed, resulting in higher-than-normal levels of black-grass, with some fields or parts of fields that had previously seen black-grass brought under control in recent years suffering from poor control this time round. Seed return in these situations will be high and will therefore have to be managed carefully this autumn. Other areas of concern are oilseed rape crops with high populations of black-grass which will need managing before the ground is put back to a cereal.
In terms of quality, those wheat crops that made it through the wet winter and spring look to have good potential, although it’s unlikely we’ll see any records being broken. The wet weather has resulted in increased disease pressure and has made the timing of fungicide applications tricky at best. But, with plenty of choice in terms of fungicide input options, those growers who have been minded to do so have been able to throw the proverbial ‘kitchen sink’ at crops with good potential. The addition of ARIZONA (500g/l folpet) to fungicide programmes has boosted innovative chemistries, and it is pleasing to see the increase in septoria control where it has been used. Hopefully crops will receive plenty of sunlight in the next few weeks to aid grain fill and make the most of the additional green leaf area that ARIZONA has provided.
At the end of June, some crops of winter barley are really starting to ripen quickly, but I think the first combines are still three weeks away. Much will hinge on the weather in the next couple of weeks, but some oilseed rape has already been sprayed off so we could see rape harvest commencing in a fortnight to three weeks.
Yield predictions are anyone’s guess at the moment: the wet autumn, winter and spring conditions will certainly have imposed a yield ceiling on a lot of crops, but the ability of wheat to compensate will help to see yields recover to a certain extent: the word ‘variable’ will be used a lot when combines finally start to take wheat.
In contrast, winter barley may not be able to compensate quite so well for reduced tiller numbers, but I have seen some really good-looking hybrids out there. On the whole, spring barleys went in really well and look good. If these crops get the right amount of rainfall and sunlight in the next few weeks they could well exceed expectations, albeit those expectations were not very high in Mid-April.
It's anyone’s guess with oilseed rape: this is a crop that has the ability to surprise us in good ways and bad, and it remains the best break crop out there if establishment is good.
In conclusion, the end of the season has a slightly more positive feel and I’ve got my fingers crossed for good weather at harvest to make the most of what we have got and with minimal drying costs. And let’s hope the weather Gods are with us for the new drilling season!
Holly Pratt
Senior Agronomy Manager, East
Black-grass control has been a bit hit and miss in the eastern half of the UK this year. Where pre-emergence and/or post-emergence herbicides were applied in a timely manner, control of black-grass has been good. But, where crops were drilled early but only received a pre-em treatment or nothing at all, there’s an awful lot of black-grass around. The same is also true for those autumn crops that were drilled late in the season and didn’t receive an herbicide on time due to the continued wet conditions.
In contrast, where spring drilling was postponed by the weather, the delay has been beneficial in terms of black-grass control.
From a quality perspective, most crops are looking good considering the season. Wheats are in the final stages of flowering, with plenty of septoria and brown rust to be found. Winter barley is starting to turn, with the gates now shut on crops until combining commences.
Spring barley also looks good at the moment, with crops at the flowering stage. The final fungicide applications have only just been applied, so we've probably yet to see what the weather brings in terms of testing the persistency of disease control programmes.
Sugar beet is also looking good, and even though drilled later than normal, most crops have done a pretty good job of going through their growth stages and are not too far behind where they should be in a more ‘normal’ year.
Assuming the weather stays on side, we’ll probably see the first combines rolling in the next week or fortnight, but in terms of yield predictions for wheat, barley and oilseed rape, your guess is as good as mine!
Michael Farr
Regional Agronomy Manager, South West
As David and Holly have explained, grassweed control has been very variable in the South West, with some unexpected patches of black-grass and ryegrass appearing throughout the region. Pre-emergence applications worked very well, but the lack of follow-up treatments caused issues. In terms of broad leaf weeds, it seems Groundsel is the weed of the season!
Winter wheats are already at the grain fill stage in the South West, with early drilled crops displaying very high levels of brown rust and septoria. PGR treatments have worked very well where they were needed, and some crops look to have very good potential. Winter barleys are also looking good, but late season ramularia is causing some concern.
Most of the region’s winter OSR crops are clean with no major disease issues, and crops are mostly quite short so lodging is unlikely.
Winter beans are also looking good and showing massive potential, especially those crops that podded well off the floor and have just finishing flowering. Peas are also flowering, with pea aphids causing some alarm.
Maize crops are also galloping away, with most at 8-15 true leaves (50cm+) and looking very promising. Meanwhile, spring barleys are under pressure from net blotch and ramularia at a time when boots have just split.
The region’s combines could start working in winter barley as soon as 7th July, with winter oilseed rape following a week later although crop maturity is more variable in this crop.
I’m going to stick my neck out and make the following average and maximum yield predictions:
- Spring Barley: average 6.0t/ha, maximum 9.0t/ha
- Winter Barley: average 8.5t/ha, maximum 10.5t/ha
- Winter Wheat: average 9.0t/ha, maximum 11.5t/ha
- Winter OSR: average 3.2t/ha, maximum 4.5t/ha
Alistair Eccles
Regional Agronomy Manager, Scotland
Scotland still enjoys the enviable position that black-grass still doesn’t pose a significant risk. It is present on a few farms, but it is still very much limited in extent and I have personally never come across it on farm.
Throughout Scotland, winter barley crops are at the milky ripe stage, with very few crops remaining disease free: the biggest problems are the usual suscpects, ramularia and rhynchosporium, both of which are evident on the flag leaf of the majority of crops. High levels of net blotch have also been reported. Where it has been used, ARIZONA (500g/l folpet) has helped to keep the lid on ramularia.
Winter wheats are flowering well, but are also feeling the effects of rising septoria pressure once more, with trace levels of yellow rust also being seen.
Early crops of spring barley have already got their awns out, with ramularia – thankfully – yet to make an appearance. Unfortunately, rhynchosporium is now infecting the base of many crops. Elsewhere, later drilled crops have recently been receiving their T2 treatments.
The first Scottish combines are likely to get going on winter barley in mid-July at the earliest, with winter OSR still not expected to be taken until early August.
In terms of yield predictions, I doubt we’ll see anything exceptional, especially as the cool conditions in June mean there are concerns regarding grain fill, but I remain hopeful on behalf of all Scottish growers.
Alexandria Bell
Regional Agronomy Manager, North East
There’s certainly more black-grass present this season compared to previous years, largely due to the season’s tricky conditions which have also exacerbated ryegrass pressure. As a result, there is a strong focus on hand-rogueing to maintain a degree of control. Those growers that are utilising rotations with winter and spring crops, plus cashing-in on suitable SFI schemes, are seeing some benefit with reduction in black-grass and ryegrass pressure.
Winter barley crops are quickly turning now, with combines likely to start rolling in the next 14-21 days, weather permitting.
Most cereals have now had a T3 application, with some talk of T4 treatments also being planned due to disease pressure coming in late or remaining so high.
Most crops of winter oilseed rape will be desiccated shortly as seeds are now starting to turn.
Yields across the full gamut of crops are likely to be variable at best, and I, like so many others, am not able to put a figure on how crops are expected to perform as it has been a season like no other.